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First Blog Homework

• In an article by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, he predicted what the future of computing would be. He thought that the speed and efficiency of advancements in tech would fuel an era of incredible advancements in all areas of technology. This was called “Moore’s Law”. Astonishingly, he was correct! Again in 1975 he updated his predictions and his predictions and outcomes were used to predict the future of a boom in technology. This idea that computers continuously get faster and better is argued against by those who argue that computers can’t get better forever due to limitations of processors. He claimed that the number of transistors within a circuit will indefinitely continue to grow. Moore’s Law is considered the golden rule for electronics. Performance is now 3,500 times higher now than it was with the 4004 microprocessor, which was Intel’s first. Now it is 14 nanometers. Energy efficiency is now 90,000 times better, and price is 60,000 times cheaper as well.
  • I think it is impressive how even In the 60’s that someone could predict advancements like this in computer technology. I personally believe that computers are still advancing regardless of processors, but then again I’m no expert on computers so I would have to know more to really have a set opinion. Companies like Intel still use his law and his findings
• Richard Buckminster Fuller was a famous designer and inventor who came up with the idea of the knowledge doubling curve. He knew that as we progress as a society, we do not shed old information or assumptions we no longer need. Fuller claimed that up until the 1900s, information or knowledge was only doubling every 100 years. Now, because of things like the internet, our knowledge is doubling at a rate of just over a year. This theory leads us to believe that our knowledge, at this rate of speed, will soon be doubling every 12 hours! According to a neuroscientist at Harvard University, Jeff Lichtman, calculated that billions of petabytes of storage is needed for the entire brain. For comparison, the internet as whole is only a few million terabytes.
  • I think it is astounding that the brain is able to hold that much information. I remember hearing back in middle school that the brain never runs out of “storage” for memories and other information. The idea that our knowledge is consistently doubling is such a freaky thought! Especially if we were only able to hold a finite amount in our brains. This theory is very similar to Moore’s Law. Both our brains and the number of transistors continuously grow.
• Ray Kurzweil, creator of text-to-speech computer software, claims that technology is progressing faster than ever. Kurzweil’s law is called “Law of Accelerating Returns” and it stems from Moore’s Law and shows the speed of artificial intelligence. Kurzweil predicted several things correctly such as artificial intelligence beating a chess champion, verbal commands given to people’s devices, exoskeletal limbs, virtual reality, and also translations done in real-time. By his law, he is able to predict what he believes will happen over the next few decades. He claimed that by the 2030s we will even be able to upload our own consciousness in virtual reality to make it feel 100% realistic. In the 2040s Nanotech foglets can make food and other objects out of thin air.
  • I feel like Kurzweil’s future predictions using his law for the decades to come is a little far-fetched. Objects from thin air seems too science fiction. However, realistic virtual reality is definitely a possibility. In fact, it is already starting to come into effect. We are creating games that can be played using virtual reality and the brain is affected in ways that make it react as it would in real life situations. I find these future predictions quite scary, but then again, I am sure that as they come it will seem less intimidating. Just like how people in the 90s were probably very intimidated by predictions for the early to mid-2000s. I do, however, hope that we know when enough is enough and when we need to not allow artificial intelligence to become so much more advanced than us that they have the capability to sabotage us.
• Peter Thiel, co-creator of PayPal and an investor and board member for Facebook, believes that despite the fast evolving advances in technology such as computers and cellphones, there is not enough advances being created in fields like medicine, energy, or transportation. Thiel also has an article titled, “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.” Thiel donates to research such as life extending and other health related nonprofit organizations. Thiel’s concern is that innovations is technology have slowed a great amount and that more needs to be done in innovations in science, medicine, etc, and not petty things such as social media startups. He claims people are avoiding risks and that it is hurting growth. In a video from Intel explaining Moore’s law, it said that if technology was developed at the same rate that electronics are, that cars could go 300,000 mph, get 2,000,000 miles to the gallon, and would only cost four cents!
  • To me it sounds like a lot of complaining and a lot of talking but not enough action on his part. He claims that technological advancements have slowed in important areas where innovations are needed, yet it does not seem that he is taking the risks he claims people are averting. These social media startups and other “petty” advancements are actually quite beneficial to the areas he views are more important like medicine or transportation. These advancements in social media can help fuel advancements and shine light on all kinds of beneficial societal areas. It is not that people are turning away from the risks, but rather that they are most likely honing their skills in other areas for the time being. If cars were developed like electronics are, I would say that four cent car sounds pretty nice right about now. Would save broke college students a little bit of money don’t you think?